Complex vs complicated

A lot of the decisions we face as product managers fall into two buckets: complex or complicated. Very rarely are we lucky enough to have a simple problem, and hopefully we face no chaotic problems. See Cynefin Framework for details on Complex, Complicated, Simple, and Chaotic.

Complicated vs Complex

From Roberto Poli:

• Complicated problems originate from causes that can be individually distinguished; they can be addressed piece-by-piece; for each input to the system there is a proportionate output.
• Complex problems and systems result from networks of multiple interacting causes that cannot be individually distinguished; must be addressed as entire systems, that is they cannot be addressed in a piecemeal way; they are such that small inputs may result in disproportionate effects.

From HBR:

with [complicated systems] one can usually predict outcomes by knowing the starting conditions. In a complex system, the same starting conditions can produce different outcomes, depending on the interactions of the elements in the system.

Examples

• Fixing a car is complicated; disrupting the automotive industry is complex.

A metaphor from Alex Komoroske:

Imagine the problem space as a labyrinth that you must navigate to arrive at your goal. Complication can be thought of as how many hazards there are and how much the paths twist and branch. Crucially, though, the walls are well defined: at every point it’s clear which way to turn to avoid the walls, or how many different paths you have to choose from at this branch point, or when you’re about to step into a hazard.

Complexity is the degree to which the labyrinth is shrouded in a deep, perhaps impenetrable fog. Where the walls are, where the branch points are, and where the hazards are is no longer clear until you are right upon them. The general direction of the goal is your only beacon for you to rely on. Unit for unit, complexity is significantly more difficult than complication.

Changing your behaviour

Since differentiating between complex and complicated problems is hard, the first step is to assume all problems are complex until proven otherwise.

Complex Problems

Complex problems

• The playbook no longer applies. What has worked is likely to no longer work.
• You can't slow down 🐢, but you can't go fast 🐇. You need to pause to think through things and observe, but don't pause for long. Quickly decide on a new course of action, and get moving.